Analyst Predicts Windows Phone Will Be No. 1 By 2013

Pyramid Research is making a bold prediction: Windows Phone will be No. 1 by 2013, beating Android in market share.

Pyramid Research previously put up their report on their expectations, but many thought the report predicted Windows Phone would rise to prominence by 2015, but the report really meant that Windows Phone would initially rise to the top by 2013. From what it seems, they merely meant that Windows Phone will demonstrate in 2015 that they will stay the market leader.

The following graph depicts how Pyramid Research believes the mobile market will be like in the coming years:

Crazy, no? But how did Pyramid Research come up with their data? They explained their methodology in detail this time around:

  • At Pyramid, we forecast handsets and smartphone demand for 51 markets, and we update the models with fresh information every three months. That means that we have separate forecast models for 51 countries, and one or two regional specialists are responsible for the accuracy of assumptions and projections for the countries and regions they cover.
  • Rather than just covering the 15 largest
    markets, and subsequently extrapolating data for rest of the world, as is the case with many other research companies, our global smartphone forecast is based on such a great number of individual market models – including a large number of emerging markets, those that will actually drive much of the growth through 2015.
  • Finally, remember that all our handset projections tie back to our mobile market demand projections, so theforecasted numbers operate in the context of the mobile market realities. The OS-related projections are, of course, linked to our projections related to the total growth rate of the smartphone market, and the estimated market shares of the ten largest smartphone vendors.

Anything is possible, and keep in mind: a prediction is merely a prediction. Anything can happen between now and then, and Microsoft’s partnership with Nokia hasn’t even begun yet — in the sense of shipping devices — so until we see how Windows Phone on Nokia does, we won’t know for sure.

Who knows, another mobile platform could appear and rise to prominence. No one really foresaw what Google’s Android would do to the mobile market, and it turned everything upside down. Many believed Apple would remain No. 1 for quite some time, but Android took care of that in a short period of time.

What many people still do not seem to realize is that there are still millions upon millions of people who do not own a smart phone. Currently only about 20-30% of phones in the United States are smart phones, meaning there are still millions of people who have yet to upgrade to a smart phone or to just get some sort of mobile phone in the first place.

The smart phone market is anything but established (such as Microsoft is the established leader in the desktop and laptop market), and to think that another platform couldn’t come out of nowhere and assert its dominance is completely ignorant — and idiotic. As I said, look at Android.

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