Last year I decided that, as many others do, I would make a list of predictions for the year. My predictions included such products as Windows 8, Windows Phone 7, and even Chrome OS. So why don’t we take a look at how I did.

Windows 8

I said that we wouldn’t know much about Windows 8 until the summer time of last year, but I was wrong on that count. It wasn’t until BUILD in September that Sinofsky got on stage and gave a very detailed presentation of Windows 8. Even now, there are a lot of questions to be answered about Windows 8 — such as its launch date, or even a time frame for the launch.

I also said that there would be a beta release, that would only be available for desktops. Microsoft released a Developer Preview, with the Windows 8 Beta release coming sometime early this year — so I was wrong there. I guess I was somewhat right, as the ARM version of Windows 8 was not available and that version is primarily targeted at tablets, but then again the x86/x64 version is just as capable of running on tablets as well (so long as Intel gets their act together).

No surprise: Windows 8 did not RTM this year, as some predicted.

My final prediction was the further compartmentalization of the Windows operating system, and that the tablet version would remove the GUI and legacy support. This is indeed the case for the ARM version (it is still unclear as to whether the desktop would be disabled on x86/x64 versions if they were put on tablets), but that’s because the applications would have to be modified in order to run on the ARM architecture. Microsoft has said they have absolutely no plans to allow older applications to run on ARM, so in a way, they are removing legacy support.

 Windows Phone 7

“Microsoft will continue to not get it,” that’s what I said last year in regards to Windows Phone 7. By that I meant Microsoft would not update the phone as quickly as they should in order to catch up with the competition.

In a way, they certainly didn’t get it… It wasn’t until late September that Windows Phone “Mango” was finally released, which was an entire year after the original product launch. Also, it took a couple of months before any phones designed for “Mango” came out, which is awfully slow — but some did appear to be Windows Phone-specific phones, not Android phones running Windows Phone 7.

Sales also remained dismal, and they will until Microsoft gets their act together (and rumors about Microsoft and Nokia’s plans seem to address the current sales issues), so I was definitely right that “Microsoft will continue to not get it.” But that’s not surprising, as it takes Microsoft awhile to get it.

Bing

Bing did pretty well this year (not financially), growing from 11.8% market share to 15%, and with Yahoo! included the duo went from 28.2% market share up to 30.1%. The growth of the two doesn’t seem so great, which is due to Yahoo losing a couple percentage points in their market share. I predicted that by now Bing alone would be at an 18% market share, but that didn’t turn out to be the case.

I also said that HTML5 Bing would have been out 6 months ago, with that cool video background and instant search along with other updates. That never happened (the video background has happened, though), but a few people (including me) did start to see the new Bing, which then disappeared not long after.

Steve Ballmer

Steve Ballmer remained at Microsoft, also not a surprise. A few months ago approval ratings of Microsoft executives were taken, and Steve Ballmer received a 92% approval rating. That doesn’t seem too bad, except for the fact that the previous year that number was at 95% (Bill Gates has a 99.1% approval rating).

PC Sales

We kept hearing news article after news article last year of the forecast of PC sales being “slashed,” it was the hot topic of the year, after all. But in reality, PC sales did not stop, and they did not stagnate — as some seemed to think was happening or was going to happen. Sure, the growth was only around 3% year-over-year, but when you sell some 350 million+ computers every single year, 3% of that number is 10.5 million.

iPhone

I was completely wrong in every regard here. The iPhone 5 didn’t come out, it was the iPhone 4S (but it didn’t have LTE, as I predicted), and it came out on multiple carriers in the U.S. as well.

Chromebooks

Google hasn’t given any details on Chromebook sales, but according to ZDNet they sold horribly (in the range of only tens of thousands, if that). But who would want to buy a $500 machine that can only surf the web and be valuable if connected to the Internet? Apparently very few.

So there you have it, a review of my predictions from last year. I didn’t miss all my predictions, but then again none of them were very extreme… Maybe I will make some more extreme predictions next time .

Yup, can you believe it? Tomorrow is the big day! Microsoft will finally (or hopefully) go in depth about their next operating system: “Windows 8.” I figured since pretty much everyone else is making predictions as to what to expect, I thought I should too.

I will not only be listing what I think will be divulged tomorrow, but also what we sadly won’t be hearing about either.

What We Know

The only thing we really know of about Windows 8 includes such things as what the new interface will look like (Windows Phone-esque), along with applications being written HTML5 and JavaScript, with API’s Microsoft has yet to discuss.

Not long ago Steven Sinofsky discussed how the team worked on making Windows boot faster – much faster. Windows 8 will now boot in a hybrid mode, where data loaded by the kernel is cached and then reloaded each time the computer is turned on. This is much like the current hibernation behavior of Windows 7, only Windows 7 also caches the entire users session as well which means the computer doesn’t feel “fresh” – as some describe – like an actual reboot. But this new startup type allows Windows to start quickly but still feel as though the computer was just restarted.

Previously Sinofsky also discussed some changes to the “classic” Windows desktop environment, such as copying files and the addition of ribbon to Windows Explorer.

My Predictions

Alright, let’s get started, here are my predictions for what we will, and will not, be seeing at the Windows BUILD conference.

• Windows Live ID – The whole idea of a Windows Live ID once seemed to be Microsoft’s dream to allow access to all their products with a single account – which is pretty much true today. You can log on to Xbox LIVE, the Zune Marketplace, Hotmail, Messenger, and so on and so forth with the same account so long as it is a Windows Live ID, but there is one thing you can’t log on to with a Windows Live ID: Windows. There have been previous rumors that there would be such a feature in Windows 8 that would allow you to log on with an “Online ID” that would sync your settings and presumably other data, such as documents. BUILD be the place Microsoft would reveal this feature…
• The Cloud – No surprises here, in fact, I think we would be surprised if we didn’t here anything about the cloud at the conference. Currently Microsoft offers Windows Live Mesh which allows users to sync folders of their choice, both to SkyDrive as well as to other computers – but I believe Microsoft will incorporate this into the operating system and the user would do very little to set it up, beyond logging in or associating their Windows account with a specific Windows Live ID.
• .NET is alive! – Many have worried that due to Microsoft’s avoidance of saying Silverlight and .NET in regards to Windows 8 means that they will only allow the new applications in the new interface to be created using HTML5 and JavaScript. Personally, I think this is just a bunch of bologna… While I do believe Microsoft will focus more on HTML5 and JavaScript with the new “platform,” .NET will still be around – reason being that HTML and JavaScript are much easier to understand, but whether that means there will be a bunch of junk apps because of it remains to (of course) be seen.
• Legacy No More, Sort of – As we now know, Windows 8 will boot very quickly, with the demo booting into the new interface in mere seconds. We also know that the traditional desktop in Windows 8 is more of an application and is only loaded on demand – in other words, the desktop isn’t held in memory until the user specifically requests to go into the traditional desktop environment. This will certainly help with the snappiness of the system, along with battery life, but this must also mean to some extent that legacy is gone… At least in the newer interface. After all, these new applications require the usage of a new interface paradigm, so there is no legacy to support.
• A Tablet or Two – This also isn’t a very big or out-of-the-way prediction, but Microsoft must be dying to show off tablets running Windows 8. Microsoft has shown many tablets at conferences like CES, but they were all running Windows 7, and let’s face it, who cares?

Now here are a few things I don’t think Microsoft will discuss at all during the conference:

• SKU’s – I think everybody wants there to be only one (or two) versions of Windows, kind of like in the good ol’ XP days, but since this is a developer conference it is unlikely Microsoft will discuss the editions of Windows 8 that will hit the stores – especially since it hasn’t RTM’d. Likewise, prices won’t be discussed either, seeing as that would be kind of hard to detail if there were no SKU’s.
• Release Date – Microsoft is much tighter lipped nowadays (Sinofsky, that is) when it comes to release dates, and while most seem eager to get their hands on Windows 8, there still won’t be a more specific timeline for when Windows 8 will RTM (besides just “sometime next year”).
• Public Beta – I myself would love to try out Windows 8, and those who will be at the BUILD conference are some lucky ducks, but I don’t think there will be any announcement of a public beta. A private beta? I could see that.
• The Name – Sinofsky has stressed many times that Windows 8 is a codename, not a definitive name of the product. If I remember correctly, Windows 7 was Windows 7′s codename, but they decided to stick with it. I believe Microsoft will give Windows 8 an actual name, beyond just “Windows 8,” but we won’t hear it tomorrow – unless there are some loose lipped marketing employees there tomorrow.

Yeah, I know. Nothing amazing, but hey, I am still new at this prediction thing! I will be sure to go over these once the conference is over later this week.

Be sure to check back here as I will do my best to cover the BUILD action, but I also recommend checking out sites such as Paul Thurrott’s SuperSite for Windows, WinRumors, All About Microsoft by Mary-Jo Foley, and Ed Bott’s Microsoft Report.

Pyramid Research is making a bold prediction: Windows Phone will be No. 1 by 2013, beating Android in market share.

Pyramid Research previously put up their report on their expectations, but many thought the report predicted Windows Phone would rise to prominence by 2015, but the report really meant that Windows Phone would initially rise to the top by 2013. From what it seems, they merely meant that Windows Phone will demonstrate in 2015 that they will stay the market leader.

The following graph depicts how Pyramid Research believes the mobile market will be like in the coming years:

Crazy, no? But how did Pyramid Research come up with their data? They explained their methodology in detail this time around:

• At Pyramid, we forecast handsets and smartphone demand for 51 markets, and we update the models with fresh information every three months. That means that we have separate forecast models for 51 countries, and one or two regional specialists are responsible for the accuracy of assumptions and projections for the countries and regions they cover.
• Rather than just covering the 15 largest
  markets, and subsequently extrapolating data for rest of the world, as is the case with many other research companies, our global smartphone forecast is based on such a great number of individual market models – including a large number of emerging markets, those that will actually drive much of the growth through 2015.
• Finally, remember that all our handset projections tie back to our mobile market demand projections, so theforecasted numbers operate in the context of the mobile market realities. The OS-related projections are, of course, linked to our projections related to the total growth rate of the smartphone market, and the estimated market shares of the ten largest smartphone vendors.

Anything is possible, and keep in mind: a prediction is merely a prediction. Anything can happen between now and then, and Microsoft’s partnership with Nokia hasn’t even begun yet — in the sense of shipping devices — so until we see how Windows Phone on Nokia does, we won’t know for sure.

Who knows, another mobile platform could appear and rise to prominence. No one really foresaw what Google’s Android would do to the mobile market, and it turned everything upside down. Many believed Apple would remain No. 1 for quite some time, but Android took care of that in a short period of time.

What many people still do not seem to realize is that there are still millions upon millions of people who do not own a smart phone. Currently only about 20-30% of phones in the United States are smart phones, meaning there are still millions of people who have yet to upgrade to a smart phone or to just get some sort of mobile phone in the first place.

The smart phone market is anything but established (such as Microsoft is the established leader in the desktop and laptop market), and to think that another platform couldn’t come out of nowhere and assert its dominance is completely ignorant — and idiotic. As I said, look at Android.

I may be a few days late, but I don’t think that will make too much of a difference, but it is time for me to make my first predictions for the year of 2011, regarding Microsoft, that is.

I have never made any predictions like this before, so please bare with me. The predictions I am going to make will be pretty broad, but hopefully next year they will be better.

Oh, and there will be predictions for a few other products as well.

Windows 8

We still know very little about Windows 8, but what we do know is that Windows 8 will run on ARM and other SoC (System on a Chip) architectures, which is no surprise.

My prediction is that we will continue to know very little about Windows 8 until sometime this summer, maybe a private or public beta of some sort, but nothing for tablets. The beta (if any) that will be out will be merely for the desktop and a tablet version will be seen at a later date in 2011.

Some sites are saying Windows 8 could RTM as soon as this year, personally, I am saying no to that, as there will be quite a bit of work to be done in order to have Windows 8 work on both desktop and tablet devices.

I have one last prediction for Windows 8, and that is it will become more compartmentalized. Since Windows 8 will be comprised of multiple components the system will be able to run on lower-end hardware such as netbooks and tablets. A couple components would be the GUI and legacy support, this way tablets can have a custom interface with legacy removed (why would they need it? Seeing as tablets will need custom applications).

Windows Phone 7

This one is fairly straight-forward: Microsoft will continue to not get it.

What I mean is that Microsoft won’t update Windows Phone 7 as quickly as they should.

As for devices, we will start to see some phones that are designed for Windows Phone instead of slapping Windows Phone 7 on devices originally designed for Android. Sales will be okay, but as long as Microsoft continues to think that a little bit of advertising will go a long way, they will be disappointed.

As for that rumored major update codenamed “Mango,” I believe we will see that update around fall of this year.

Bing

On the other hand, Bing will continue to receive update after update, making it much more compelling to people to make the switch. What will Bing get feature wise? Not too sure to be specific, but I predict we will see that HTML5 update (with animated and more interactive home page backgrounds, Instant Search like display and so forth) around spring time, and summer at the latest.

Market share wise, Bing will continue to grow, taking small bits out of Google’s market. I am going to say that by years end, Bing alone will take 18% of the market, not including Yahoo!

Steve Ballmer

I don’t care much for Ballmer, I personally would like to see him go. He is a good business man, but as for vision, there is nothing there.

As I said, I would like to see him go, but he will remain at Microsoft for another year.

PC sales

Many people continue to say tablets will eat PC sales (I mean any sort of computer, whether it be running Windows or Mac OS X), but I am not so sure.

The reason I am not so sure is we still haven’t seen any compelling tablet other than the iPad. Sales of the iPad will continue at a strong rate, but they will do little to PC sales, until we see more competition that is.

iPhone

The iPhone for Verizon was announced, and no one was that excited… It was welcomed, but there were no huge parties or anything

Sure, the iPhone is now on what some call a better network, but I predict the iPhone will continue to have issues with dropped calls and what not.

Here is a broad prediction: the iPhone 5 will be launched sometime this year, without LTE capabilities of any sort. Oh, and the iPhone 5 won’t be immediately available on Verizon, it will come to AT&T first and on Verizon at a later time.

Google Chrome OS

Chrome OS will come out sometime this year, with decent sales, but won’t take off. In other words: Windows will remain king.

My reasoning: people will find it boring, useless and underpowered. Whether or not people know a lot can now be done in a web browser, they won’t see it that way, they want the ability to run full on applications, something Chrome OS can’t provide.

So there you have it! My predictions for the year of 2011. Be sure to come back next year to see how I did. Probably poorly, but we have a while year to find out, don’t we?